{"data":[{"id":"m-cannabis","question":"Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?","category":"Congress","jurisdiction":"Federal","yesProb":58,"change24h":-2,"participants":18220,"creditsCommitted":3480200,"closesAt":"2028-12-15","resolvesAt":"2029-01-01","status":"open","resolutionCriteria":"Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2029, cannabis is removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act (rescheduling to Schedule III or lower counts) via enacted statute or a final published DEA rule.","primarySource":"Federal Register final rule / Congress.gov","backupSource":"DEA Diversion Control Division publications","whyYes":["The rescheduling proceeding has already advanced through HHS review with a Schedule III recommendation.","S. 2201 (Cannabis Reform and Regulation Act) has cosponsors from both parties in the Senate.","38 states now operate medical programs, creating sustained pressure from governors of both parties."],"whyNo":["Administrative rescheduling has been litigated at every step and could extend past the deadline.","Senate floor time for a standalone cannabis vote has never materialized despite repeated commitments.","Banking-only compromises (safe-harbor bills) could relieve pressure without full descheduling."],"relatedBillIds":["s-2201"],"relatedRepIds":["rep-morgan"],"relatedPulseIds":["pq-cannabis"],"comments":761,"followers":5240,"trending":true},{"id":"m-shutdown","question":"Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?","category":"Congress","jurisdiction":"Federal","yesProb":41,"change24h":5,"participants":15630,"creditsCommitted":2870400,"closesAt":"2026-09-30","resolvesAt":"2026-10-01","status":"open","resolutionCriteria":"Resolves YES if a lapse in appropriations causes any federal agency to begin a shutdown furlough (per OMB contingency guidance taking effect) at any point before 12:01 AM ET on October 1, 2026.","primarySource":"OMB shutdown guidance / agency contingency notices","backupSource":"Congressional Record — appropriations status","whyYes":["Only 4 of 12 appropriations bills have passed either chamber as of July, behind the 10-year average pace.","A dispute over emergency supplemental spending has hardened positions in both caucuses.","Two of the last five fiscal-year deadlines produced at least a brief lapse in appropriations."],"whyNo":["Continuing resolutions have averted most deadline standoffs — a clean CR remains the default path.","Neither party's leadership wants a shutdown headline five weeks before the midterm elections.","Appropriators have reportedly agreed on topline numbers, leaving only rider disputes to settle."],"relatedBillIds":[],"relatedRepIds":["rep-reed","rep-whitman"],"relatedPulseIds":[],"comments":538,"followers":2980,"trending":true},{"id":"m-scotus","question":"Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?","category":"Congress","jurisdiction":"Federal","yesProb":71,"change24h":2,"participants":9840,"creditsCommitted":1760300,"closesAt":"2026-12-28","resolvesAt":"2026-12-31","status":"open","resolutionCriteria":"Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate votes to confirm any nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2026, per the Congressional Record roll-call vote.","primarySource":"Senate.gov roll-call votes","backupSource":"Congressional Record","whyYes":["A pending vacancy and a same-party Senate majority historically confirms within 70 days on average.","The Judiciary Committee has already scheduled hearing dates for late summer.","Recent confirmations have proceeded on near-party-line votes, reducing the need for crossover support."],"whyNo":["A 51-seat majority leaves no margin — two absences or defections could stall the floor vote.","Election-year confirmations have twice been deferred to the lame-duck session or abandoned.","An unexpected vetting issue could force a withdrawal and restart the clock past year-end."],"relatedBillIds":[],"relatedRepIds":["rep-morgan","rep-reed"],"relatedPulseIds":[],"comments":356,"followers":2210}],"meta":{"version":"v1","count":3,"attribution":"Quorly demonstration data — virtual Q Credit markets, no cash value","generatedAt":"2026-07-03T12:00:00Z"}}