Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34% 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58% 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41% 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52% 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71% 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22% 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47% 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62% 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44% 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58% 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68% 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24% 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36% 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74% 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34% 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58% 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41% 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52% 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71% 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22% 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47% 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62% 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44% 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58% 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68% 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24% 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36% 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74% 1%
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Pulse

Should insurers be required to cover mental health care on the same terms as physical health care?

Yes
68%
No
21%
Not sure
11%
27.9K responses · 24K verifiedJun 8 – Jul 2, 2026
Cast your response

Representation Gap

Gap index
-36%Rep Gap

Congressional stock trading ban · CA-45

District
68%
Rep vote
NO

68% of constituents support the ban; their representative voted NO. That is a wider gap than 78% of districts.

Your Representatives

All reps
Official portrait of Rep. Mike Johnson
Rep. Mike Johnson
RepublicanLA-04
-36pp gap
Official portrait of Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
DemocratMassachusetts
+28pp gap
Official portrait of Sen. John Thune
Sen. John Thune
RepublicanSouth Dakota
-54pp gap

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Signal Feed

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L
Liberty177628m
NO 1,500 credits@ 36%

Taking the other side of the hearing hype. A Rules hearing is where leadership sends bills to look busy. Until I see a whip notice, the base rate for discharge-adjacent bills getting floor time in an election year is brutal. Adding to my NO.

132 74
B
BeltwayBrief12m

Rules Committee just noticed a Wednesday hearing on H.R. 1234. That's the first floor-adjacent movement on the stock-trading ban in 11 weeks. Watch whether leadership staff attend — that's the tell.

87 96
D
DataDriven41m

Methods question for the feed: when a pollster switches from live-caller to online panel mid-cycle, what should aggregators do with the trendline?

64 12

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Coverage, costs, drug pricing, rural hospitals, and mental-health access. Wonks, clinicians, and patients comparing what the bills actually say.

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Top forecasters this season

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L
Liberty1776
Top Forecaster
91%
accuracy
342 resolved 14
D
DataDriven
Consistently Calibrated
89%
accuracy
415 resolved 9
P
PolicyOracle
Policy Analyst
88%
accuracy
287 resolved 11
C
CivicVet
Evidence Builder
86%
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264 resolved 6
B
BallotMath
Election Specialist
85%
accuracy
231 resolved 8

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