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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

National Polling Center

Every qualifying public poll, one transparent average, and two independent signals to check it against.

Demonstration data — not a live government record

Where Americans Stand

Pick an issue. Compare three independent measurements.

National Polling Average
79.8%
4 qualifying polls · 30d
Quorly Pulse
83%
48.2K member responses
Forecast Probability
34%
12.8K forecasters

49-point gap between quorly pulse and forecast probability on “Congressional stock trading ban.” Opinion and predicted outcome are different measurements — a persistent split like this is the representation signal Quorly exists to surface.

Six-month trend — three signals

Jan – Jul 2026
JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJUL
National Polling Average
Quorly Pulse
Forecast Probability

Latest National Polls

Live
34 studies tracked
PollsterField datesSampleResultTransparencyIn avgActions
YYouGovfor The EconomistJun 27, 2026 – Jun 30, 20261,421 Reg. voters47%/45%±3.2 88View
RRRasmussen ReportsPresidential approvalJun 29, 2026 – Jul 1, 20261,500 Likely voters48%/50%±2.5 38View
YYouGovfor The EconomistJun 27, 2026 – Jun 30, 20261,592 Adults45%/50%±3.1 88View
GGallupCongressional approvalJun 18, 2026 – Jun 27, 20261,024 Adults21%/73%±3.8 100View
GGallupPresidential approvalJun 18, 2026 – Jun 27, 20261,024 Adults44%/51%±3.8 100View
MCMorning ConsultDirection of countryJun 26, 2026 – Jun 28, 20262,201 Reg. voters30%/62%±2.1 75View
QUQuinnipiac UniversityGeneric congressional ballotJun 20, 2026 – Jun 24, 20261,467 Reg. voters48%/44%±2.6 88View
ECEmerson College PollingCongressional approvalJun 22, 2026 – Jun 24, 20261,350 Reg. voters22%/68%±2.6 75View
QUQuinnipiac UniversityPresidential approvalJun 20, 2026 – Jun 24, 20261,467 Reg. voters43%/52%±2.6 88View
CCygnalGeneric congressional ballotJun 17, 2026 – Jun 19, 20261,500 Likely voters47%/45%±2.5 63View
MPMarist Pollfor NPR/PBS NewsJun 15, 2026 – Jun 19, 20261,218 Adults44%/49%±3.4 100View
AAP-NORCDirection of countryJun 11, 2026 – Jun 16, 20261,143 Adults28%/63%±3.9 100View
GGallupCannabis legalizationJun 2, 2026 – Jun 12, 20261,011 Adults69%/28%±4 100View
PRPew Research CenterCannabis legalizationMay 19, 2026 – May 27, 20265,214 Adults57%/31%±1.6 100View

Polls in the "Congressional stock trading ban" average

4 included
Morning Consult
0.97
Ipsos
0.90
Echelon Insights
0.84
Data for Progress
0.66

Weights combine recency (14-day half-life), sample size (diminishing returns), and disclosure completeness. Pollster orientation is never a weighting input. Polls scoring below 55 transparency are excluded.

Question We Asked

“Should members of Congress be banned from trading individual stocks while in office?”
Support
83%
Oppose
11%
Not sure
6%

Voluntary survey of verified members (Jun 1 – Jul 2, 2026) — not a probability sample.

Full Pulse breakdown

Related Forecast Market

Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?
34%
YES probability
12.8K forecasters
2.1M Q Credits committed

Q Credits are virtual, have no cash value, and cannot be purchased or withdrawn.

Signal Dictionary

Polling average — what representative samples of Americans say, weighted by our published model.

Public Pulse — what verified Quorly members say. Engaged, district-matched, voluntary.

Forecast probability — the market's odds the related OUTCOME actually happens. Opinion and outcome are different questions; the gap between them is the story.

Quorly is nonpartisan. We list every qualifying public poll regardless of who sponsored it. Pollster orientation is shown as descriptive metadata and never affects a poll's weight — only disclosure quality, recency, and sample design do. Our averaging model is published in full, and every poll page shows the exact question wording. All figures on this page are demonstration data.

16 pollsters tracked Open methodology