Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34% 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58% 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41% 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52% 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71% 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22% 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47% 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62% 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44% 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58% 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68% 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24% 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36% 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74% 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34% 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58% 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41% 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52% 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71% 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22% 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47% 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62% 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44% 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58% 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68% 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24% 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36% 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74% 1%

Methodology

Every number on Quorly comes from a documented method. This page is the documentation.

Demonstration data — not a live government record

How Public Pulse is collected

Public Pulse is a voluntary community survey. Members answer standing civic questions; results update continuously. It is a measure of the Quorly community — not a probability sample of the general public — and it is labeled that way everywhere it appears.

All responses

Any signed-in member may respond once per question. Duplicate and automated responses are filtered.

Verified

Responses from identity-verified members are broken out separately so you can compare the two populations.

Constituent

District-level counts use the district derived at signup. The address itself is discarded — see the Privacy Center.

Every Pulse result ships with its sample size, date range and a methodology note. Individual responses are never published, sold, or visible to anyone — including representatives.

How polling averages are computed

The Polling Center average is a transparency-weighted rolling average of published public polls. Three adjustments are applied, and all three are displayed openly on every average:

Recency decay

A poll's weight decays exponentially with a ~14-day half-life. A 6-week-old poll contributes roughly 12% of a fresh one.

Sample-size diminishing returns

Weight scales with the square root of sample size and is capped — a 5,000-person poll is not five times a 1,000-person poll, because sampling error is not the dominant error source.

House effects — displayed openly

Each pollster's persistent lean relative to the consensus is estimated and shown on its scorecard. We adjust for it and publish the adjustment — we never silently drop a pollster for its lean.

Polls enter the average only if they disclose sponsor, field dates, sample size, population and question wording. Every poll page shows its transparency checklist, and you can always see exactly which polls are in or out of an average — and why.

How the Representation Gap is calculated

For a given issue, the Representation Gap compares constituent sentiment (the share of a representative's verified in-district Pulse respondents supporting a position) with the representative's recorded action (their roll-call vote, sponsorship, or public position on the corresponding measure).

gap = constituent_support_% − (rep_action_aligned ? 100 : 0), reported in percentage points

Example: 83% of a district's respondents support a stock-trading ban and the member voted against the ban bill → gap of 83 points on that issue. Gaps are computed only from recorded, citable actions — never from inferred or predicted positions.

Disclaimer: the sentiment side of the gap comes from voluntary Quorly responses, not a scientific probability sample of the district. It indicates how the participating community diverges from the recorded action; it is not a certified measure of district opinion, and sample sizes are shown on every entry.

How feed ranking works

The feed is ranked by four factors — and deliberately not by predicted engagement. Content does not rank higher because it makes people angry.

Your interests
35%
Recency
25%
Evidence quality
25%
Viewpoint diversity
15%
  • Your interests: Topics, follows and districts you chose
  • Recency: Newer civic events surface first
  • Evidence quality: Sourced posts outrank unsourced ones
  • Viewpoint diversity: Deliberate mix across perspectives

There is no outrage multiplier, no pay-for-reach, and no engagement-time optimization. Sponsored content, when it exists, is labeled and excluded from organic ranking entirely.

How forecasting reputation works

Reputation is earned only one way: by making forecasts that turn out to be right. Three published statistics define every forecaster:

Accuracy

Brier-style score across resolved markets — heavily wrong confident forecasts cost more than mild ones.

Calibration

When you say 70%, does it happen about 70% of the time? Measured across probability buckets.

Resolved volume

Scores stabilize with sample size; small samples are labeled provisional on leaderboards.

Q Credits cannot be purchased, so a large balance and a high leaderboard rank can only reflect forecasting skill — never spending power. Reputation cannot be bought, gifted, or transferred.

Data sources

6 feeds
SourceTypeCoversUpdate cadence
Congress.govOfficial legislative recordBill text, status, sponsors, committee actionsHourly
House Clerk roll callsOfficial vote recordEvery recorded House floor vote, member by memberWithin minutes of a vote
Senate roll call votesOfficial vote recordEvery recorded Senate floor vote, member by memberWithin minutes of a vote
FECOfficial campaign-finance recordContributions, expenditures, committee filingsDaily
Federal RegisterOfficial rulemaking recordProposed and final rules, agency noticesDaily
Public pollster releasesThird-party researchPublished polls meeting transparency criteriaAs published

The honesty rule: if a feed is down or stale, the affected figures show "Data temporarily unavailable" with the last successful sync time. We never display stale data as current, interpolate through an outage, or fill gaps with estimates.

AI-use policy

  • AI is used to summarize bills and long documents in plain language. Every AI summary is labeled, links to the full official text, and is spot-checked by human reviewers.
  • AI assists moderation triage, but no account is suspended and no content is removed by an automated decision alone — a human makes every enforcement call.
  • AI never writes persuasive political content on the platform, never generates posts posing as users, and never ranks content by predicted emotional reaction.
  • AI models are never used to infer an individual user's ideology, religion, or voting intention for advertising, targeting, or sale — that data is not built, so it cannot leak.
  • AI-generated media shared by users must carry the AI-generated media label (see Community Standards).

Questions about a specific number? Every chart on Quorly links back to this page and to its underlying source. If you find an error, the correction policy on the Neutrality page applies.