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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%
YouGovfor The EconomistIncluded in Quorly average

Economist/YouGov Generic Ballot

Demonstration data — not a live government record
Exact question wording
“If an election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district?”
Democratic
47%
Republican
45%
Other / unsure
8%
Change from previous wave: +1 pts

Three-signal comparison

National Polling Avg
47.2%
Public Pulse
46%
Forecast Prob
48%

Three separate measurements — what people want, what our community says, what forecasters expect. Never blended.

Quorly Poll Analyst

This registered voters survey of 1,421 respondents was conducted Jun 27, 2026–Jun 30, 2026 via online panel (matched sample). The reported margin of error is ±3.2 points, so differences inside that range may not be meaningful. Population and mode matter when comparing this result with other polls on the same topic — registered-voter and adult samples are not interchangeable.

AI-generated interpretation. Review the original poll and methodology before drawing conclusions.

Transparency 88/100

Full question wording released
Complete topline results
Crosstabs published
Weighting variables disclosed
Field dates disclosed
Sample size & MoE disclosed
Sponsor / funder disclosed
Microdata or raw data available

Transparency measures disclosure — not whether the result is favorable or accurate.

Methodology

Field datesJun 27, 2026 – Jun 30, 2026
PublishedJul 2, 2026
Sample1,421 Registered voters
GeographyNational
ModeOnline panel (matched sample)
Margin of error±3.2 pts
YouGov
International online research firm · Nonpartisan
Pollster profile
Demonstration data — not an actual polling result.