Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34% 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58% 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41% 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52% 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71% 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22% 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47% 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62% 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44% 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58% 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68% 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24% 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36% 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74% 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34% 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58% 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41% 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52% 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71% 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22% 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47% 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62% 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44% 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58% 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68% 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24% 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36% 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74% 1%
Legislation Tracker
H.R. 1234Passed HouseGovernment EthicsCongressFinancial Regulation

Ban stock trading by members of Congress

Restoring Trust in Congress Act of 2026

Introduced
Committee
3
Passed House
4
Passed Senate
5
Law

Plain-language summary

AI

This bill would stop sitting lawmakers and their immediate families from trading individual company stocks. Anyone covered would have to move those investments into a blind trust — an account managed by an independent trustee they cannot direct — or into broad index funds. Violations would trigger civil fines equal to 10% of each transaction and public disclosure within 48 hours. The bill does not restrict ownership of diversified mutual funds, Treasury bonds, or real estate.

AI-generated explanation. Review the official text and official sources before drawing conclusions — summaries can omit important detail.

The strongest case on each side

Strongest argument for

Lawmakers routinely receive non-public briefings that move markets; even the appearance of trading on that information corrodes public trust. A blind-trust requirement removes the conflict entirely rather than relying on after-the-fact disclosure, which studies of STOCK Act filings show is frequently late and rarely enforced.

Strongest argument against

The bill imposes a significant property restriction on officials and their families that disclosure already addresses at lower cost. Forced divestiture within 90 days could trigger real tax losses, may deter qualified candidates of modest means who hold employer stock, and does nothing about the larger information channels of family members outside the covered group.

Both cases are presented in their strongest form. Quorly does not take a side.

What it changes — and what it doesn't

What it changes
  • Members, spouses, and dependent children must divest individual stocks or move them to blind trusts within 90 days
  • Civil penalty of 10% of transaction value for violations, published within 48 hours
  • Blind-trust filings become searchable public records
What it does NOT change
  • Does NOT restrict diversified mutual funds, index funds, Treasuries, or real estate
  • Does NOT apply to congressional staff or federal judges
  • Does NOT unwind trades made before enactment

Recorded votes

House Vote Passed
430 votes cast
312
118
YEANAY
Democrats
197 yea · 44 nay
Republicans
115 yea · 74 nay

Party breakdown is an estimated demonstration visual.

Timeline

  1. Feb 11, 2025
    Introduced in the House by Rep. James Whitman (D)
  2. Apr 8, 2025
    Hearing held by the Committee on House Administration
  3. Nov 19, 2025
    Reported favorably out of committee, 8–4
  4. Apr 22, 2026
    Passed the House, 312–118
  5. May 4, 2026
    Referred to Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs

Discussion

3 comments
L
Liberty1776Top Forecaster3h

The committee calendar is the tell here. Watch whether a markup actually gets scheduled before the August recess — floor speeches are noise, markup dates are signal.

D
DataDrivenAnalyst6h

Cosponsor count has been the best single predictor in my model this cycle. Cross the ~200 mark in the House and passage odds roughly double, controlling for committee.

P
PolicyOracle1d

Worth reading the strongest-against section before taking a position — the implementation questions are where most bills like this actually stall, not the politics.

Sponsor

Official portrait of Rep. Ro Khanna
Rep. Ro Khanna
DDemocrat
218cosponsors
House Administration
Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs

Community sentiment

Live
83%
of respondents support this bill
Support
83%
Oppose
9%
Not sure
8%

Public Pulse demonstration sample · not a scientific poll

Related forecast markets

Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?

34%
YES
12.8K forecasters
Forecasts use virtual Q Credits with no cash value. Market probabilities reflect participant expectations and can be incorrect.
Demonstration data — not a live government record