Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?
Peer-to-Peer Order Book
Live- A participant offers to buy or sell a contract at a price they choose.
- Another participant takes the opposite side.
- The exchange matches the orders and holds the collateral.
- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
- Fees are shown before any order is submitted.
Video Briefing
6:41Rep. Khanna introduces the Restoring Trust in Congress Act on the House floor
3:18Speaker Johnson on the June floor calendar: border bill scheduled, trading ban unmentioned
News explainer: why 79% public support hasn't produced a stock-trading law
9:05Sen. Ossoff announces the Senate companion to the trading ban
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 34% YES / 66% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ H.R. 1234 (Restoring Trust in Congress Act) cleared committee with bipartisan cosponsors from both parties.
- ▸ Public Pulse shows 83% support across party lines — one of the least divided issues tracked on the platform.
- ▸ Leadership in both chambers has signaled floor time before the fall recess in an election year.
- ▸ Similar bills have cleared committee in three previous Congresses and never received a floor vote.
- ▸ Disagreement over whether spouses and dependents are covered has stalled every compromise draft.
- ▸ A crowded fall calendar (appropriations, NDAA) leaves a narrow window before the lame-duck session.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if a bill prohibiting members of Congress (or members and spouses) from trading individual stocks is signed into law before 12:00 PM ET on January 3, 2027. Blind-trust-only requirements count; disclosure-only reforms do not.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
Related on Quorly
Discussion · 482 comments
LiveThe NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
YES at 34% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
Fading the crowd here. "Similar bills have cleared committee in three previous Congresses and never received a floor vote." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 24%.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 42%. Holding YES at 29 entry.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.
YES at 34% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (12.8K forecasters).
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 42%. Holding YES at 29 entry.