Quorly
Join free
Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%
Legislation Tracker
S. 77FailedLaborEconomy

Raise the federal minimum wage to $12.50, indexed to inflation

Federal Minimum Wage Fairness Act

Introduced
Committee
3
Passed House
4
Passed Senate
5
Law

Cloture motion rejected in the Senate, 52–48 (60 required). Bill returned to the calendar.

Plain-language summary

AI

This bill would raise the federal wage floor in four annual steps to $12.50, then let it rise automatically with median wages so Congress no longer has to act. The $2.13 tipped minimum would phase out over seven years. A cloture vote in February 2026 failed 52–48, ten votes short of the 60 required, and the bill is not currently scheduled for further action.

AI-generated explanation. Review the official text and official sources before drawing conclusions — summaries can omit important detail.

The strongest case on each side

Strongest argument for

The federal floor has been $7.25 since 2009 — the longest freeze in the program's history — and a full-time worker at that wage earns roughly $15,000 a year. Indexing ends the cycle of decade-long erosion followed by abrupt catch-up increases that are harder for employers to plan around.

Strongest argument against

A single national floor ignores enormous regional cost differences; $12.50 is a modest change in coastal metros but a large shock in rural low-cost counties, where CBO-style analyses project measurable job losses concentrated among the least experienced workers. States are already setting higher local minimums where labor markets support them.

Both cases are presented in their strongest form. Quorly does not take a side.

What it changes — and what it doesn't

What it changes
  • •Federal minimum wage rises to $12.50 over four annual steps
  • •Automatic indexing to median-wage growth after 2030
  • •Tipped minimum wage phased out over seven years
What it does NOT change
  • ○Does NOT override higher state or local minimum wages
  • ○Does NOT change overtime rules or salary thresholds

Recorded votes

Senate Vote Did not advance
100 votes cast
52
48
YEANAY
Democrats
31 yea · 19 nay
Republicans
21 yea · 29 nay

Party breakdown is an estimated demonstration visual.

Timeline

  1. Jan 9, 2025
    Introduced in the Senate by Sen. Marcus Bell (D)
  2. Jun 17, 2025
    HELP Committee hearing on regional wage effects
  3. Feb 12, 2026
    Cloture rejected 52–48; measure fails to advance

Discussion

3 comments
L
Liberty1776Top Forecaster3h

The committee calendar is the tell here. Watch whether a markup actually gets scheduled before the August recess — floor speeches are noise, markup dates are signal.

D
DataDrivenAnalyst6h

Cosponsor count has been the best single predictor in my model this cycle. Cross the ~200 mark in the House and passage odds roughly double, controlling for committee.

P
PolicyOracle1d

Worth reading the strongest-against section before taking a position — the implementation questions are where most bills like this actually stall, not the politics.

Sponsor

Official portrait of Sen. Mark Kelly
Sen. Mark Kelly
DDemocrat
41cosponsors
Senate Health, Education, Labor, & Pensions

Community sentiment

Live
63%
of respondents support this bill
Support
63%
Oppose
29%
Not sure
8%

Public Pulse demonstration sample · not a scientific poll

Related forecast markets

Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?

22%
YES
8.4K forecasters
Forecasts use virtual Q Credits with no cash value. Market probabilities reflect participant expectations and can be incorrect.
Demonstration data — not a live government record