Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?
Peer-to-Peer Order Book
Live- A participant offers to buy or sell a contract at a price they choose.
- Another participant takes the opposite side.
- The exchange matches the orders and holds the collateral.
- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
- Fees are shown before any order is submitted.
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 22% YES / 78% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ The federal floor has been unchanged since 2009 — the longest gap since the wage was created.
- ▸ A regional-tiering compromise has drawn interest from senators in both parties.
- ▸ 30 states have already raised their own floors, lowering the practical cost of a federal deal.
- ▸ No minimum wage bill has reached a Senate floor vote in over a decade.
- ▸ Small-business groups oppose any single national figure, splitting potential coalitions.
- ▸ With most workers already above $7.25 via state law, legislative urgency is low.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if a statute raising the federal minimum wage above $7.25/hour is signed into law before January 1, 2028. The increase may be phased; enactment (not the effective date) controls.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
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Discussion · 214 comments
LiveThe NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
YES at 22% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 30%. Holding YES at 17 entry.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
YES at 22% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
Fading the crowd here. "No minimum wage bill has reached a Senate floor vote in over a decade." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 12%.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (8.4K forecasters).
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 30%. Holding YES at 17 entry.