2026 Midterms

Trimming my House position after the new fundraising quarter. GOP incumbents in the 12 closest seats out-raised challengers 2.1:1 — that's a stronger incumbency signal than the generic ballot is showing. Moving from a 46% entry up the curve; still holding, no longer adding.

The 2026 House comes down to 14 districts. Here's the map. Start with 435, remove everything with a partisan lean over 5 points, remove the open seats already priced, and you're left with 14 true coin-flips — 8 currently R-held, 6 D-held. The GOP-keeps-the-House market at 52% implies they hold roughly half their exposed seats while flipping one. That's consistent with the fundraising data but NOT with the special-election overperformance we've seen since March, which points the other way by ~2 seats. When two signals disagree this cleanly, the honest forecast is wide error bars, not confidence. District-by-district table in the circle.

Suburban parents of the feed: what actually decides your House vote in 2026? Be honest, not aspirational.

Answered Ranger's steelman thread, now the position: I think the House flips and I'm putting 800 on NO for GOP-keeps-House. Special-election overperformance since March is the single most predictive off-year signal we have, and it currently points against the 52%.

Spent the morning knocking on doors in my own neighborhood for a nonpartisan registration drive. 22 doors, 6 conversations, 2 new registrations, 1 excellent dog. The turnout crisis and the trust crisis are the same crisis wearing different hats.

Contrarian midterms position: everyone's fighting about the House while the governor races are mispriced. But since we're scoring the House here — 52% YES is fair, I'm taking a small YES purely on fundraising + incumbency, and I hold it loosely.