Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?
Peer-to-Peer Order Book
Live- A participant offers to buy or sell a contract at a price they choose.
- Another participant takes the opposite side.
- The exchange matches the orders and holds the collateral.
- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
- Fees are shown before any order is submitted.
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 44% YES / 56% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ The 2026 map features 5 competitive seats currently held by the majority versus 2 for the minority.
- ▸ Generic-ballot movement since spring has favored the out-party by 2-3 points.
- ▸ Fundraising in the three closest races currently favors Democratic challengers.
- ▸ Democrats must net 2 seats while defending an open seat rated Toss-up.
- ▸ Split-ticket voting has declined every cycle, making red-state pickups harder.
- ▸ Candidate-recruitment misses in two target states removed the strongest challengers.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if Democrats (plus independents who caucus with them) hold 50+ seats after the November 2026 elections are certified, counting a same-party vice presidency as the tiebreaker where applicable.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
Related on Quorly
Discussion · 976 comments
LiveThe NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
Fading the crowd here. "Democrats must net 2 seats while defending an open seat rated Toss-up." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 34%.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
YES at 44% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (19.3K forecasters).
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 52%. Holding YES at 39 entry.
YES at 44% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 52%. Holding YES at 39 entry.