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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Market Rules

What makes a valid market, what is banned outright, how disputes are decided, and the legal structure of Q Credits.

Demonstration data — not a live government record

Objective-resolution requirements

1
Binary, observable outcome

The question must resolve YES or NO based on a fact anyone can check — a recorded vote, a signed law, a certified election result.

2
Named primary source

Every market names its resolution source at creation (e.g. Congress.gov bill status, the House Clerk roll call) plus a backup source.

3
Hard deadline

A specific date and time by which the outcome is measured. "Eventually" is not a deadline.

4
Criteria frozen at creation

Resolution criteria are published when the market opens and cannot be edited afterward. Ambiguities are resolved by the published text, not by intent.

5
Edge cases pre-answered

What counts if the bill is amended? If the vote is postponed? Good markets answer foreseeable edge cases in the criteria before opening.

Good questions vs. vague questions

Resolvable Vague — rejectedWhy it matters
Will H.R. 1234 receive a recorded House floor vote before Dec 31, 2026? (Source: Congress.gov actions)Will Congress finally do something about stock trading?"Do something" is unresolvable; a recorded floor vote by a date is a checkable fact.
Will the federal minimum wage exceed $7.25 in enacted law by Jan 1, 2028? (Source: U.S. Code / enacted statutes)Will the minimum wage go up soon?"Soon" has no deadline and "go up" doesn't say federal, enacted, or by how much.
Will Candidate A be certified the winner of the 2026 Ohio Senate race? (Source: Ohio Secretary of State certification)Will Candidate A crush the election?Certification is objective; "crush" is a vibe, not a threshold.
Will a government shutdown of 1+ full day begin before Oct 1, 2026? (Source: OMB lapse-in-appropriations guidance)Will Washington mess up the budget again?A funding lapse is documented by OMB; "mess up" cannot be adjudicated.

Prohibited markets — never allowed

Zero tolerance
  • Assassination, death, injury, or harm to any person — no exceptions, including public figures
  • Violence, terrorism, or civil-unrest outcomes, or anything that could incentivize causing them
  • Personal private matters: health, relationships, sexuality, or family of any individual
  • Outcomes a participant could unilaterally cause or is likely to have inside knowledge of
  • Markets about private individuals or minors, in any form
  • Doxxing-dependent questions (outcomes only checkable by exposing private information)
  • Hate-targeted markets framed to demean a protected group
  • Anything that would create an incentive to interfere with an election process itself

Proposals in these categories are rejected automatically and repeat submission is an enforcement-ladder offense. If a live market is later found to fit a prohibited category it is voided and all credits returned.

Dispute process — eight steps

  1. 1
    Provisional resolution posted

    The resolution team posts the proposed outcome with source citations.

  2. 2
    48-hour challenge window

    Any participant may file a dispute with evidence during the window.

  3. 3
    Dispute stake

    Filing requires staking Q Credits, refunded if the dispute is upheld — this deters frivolous challenges.

  4. 4
    Market frozen

    Payouts pause. The market is publicly labeled Disputed while under review.

  5. 5
    Independent review panel

    Three reviewers who hold no position in the market examine the criteria and sources.

  6. 6
    Written determination

    The panel publishes a written decision citing the frozen criteria and primary sources.

  7. 7
    Final resolution & payout

    The market resolves per the determination; credits are settled to the correct side.

  8. 8
    Public post-mortem

    Disputed markets get a permanent public record of what was ambiguous, feeding back into proposal standards.

Q Credits — legal structure

No purchase

Q Credits cannot be bought with money, on any plan or by any method.

No withdrawal

Credits cannot be cashed out, redeemed, or exchanged for anything of monetary value.

No transfer

Credits cannot be sent, gifted, traded, or pooled between accounts.

No cash value

Credits are a reputation and scoring mechanism. They are not currency, deposits, securities, or property.

Because credits cannot be purchased and nothing of monetary value can be won, participation involves no wagering consideration and no monetary prize. Forecasting on Quorly is a skill-scoring system — structurally, not just rhetorically, different from gambling.

Real-Money Trading Disclosure

Required reading

Quorly does not offer real-money trading. All forecasting on this platform uses Q Credits, a virtual points system with no cash value. You cannot deposit money, you cannot win money, and you cannot lose money by using Quorly markets.

Quorly is not a broker-dealer, not a futures commission merchant, not a designated contract market, and not a gambling operator. Market probabilities are aggregated community forecasts and are not investment advice, financial advice, or a solicitation to trade on any venue.

If regulated real-money event contracts are ever offered in the future, they would be provided exclusively through a separately licensed, regulated partner exchange — under separate terms, separate accounts, identity verification, and state-by-state availability — and would be announced clearly in advance. No such offering exists today.

Regulated-partner architecture

The codebase is deliberately structured so real-money functionality cannot be switched on casually:

  • Provider abstraction: any future regulated venue sits behind a partner interface (lib/providers/regulatedMarket.ts). Quorly itself never executes, clears, or custodies real-money trades.
  • Flags locked off: regulated_real_money_markets, regulated_partner_markets, direct_cash_custody and quorly_operated_exchange are all false, and flipping them requires legal and compliance approval — they are not togglable from the admin console.
  • Separation of ledgers: the Q Credits ledger is architecturally separate from any monetary system. There is no conversion path between credits and currency in either direction.
Real-money trading is not currently available on Quorly, and no timeline for it exists. Anyone claiming to sell Q Credits or offer cash-outs is committing fraud — report them from any profile page.

See also: Methodology · Community Standards · Neutrality & Transparency