Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?
Peer-to-Peer Order Book
Live- A participant offers to buy or sell a contract at a price they choose.
- Another participant takes the opposite side.
- The exchange matches the orders and holds the collateral.
- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
- Fees are shown before any order is submitted.
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 24% YES / 76% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ The yield curve's un-inversion pattern has preceded 4 of the last 5 dated recessions.
- ▸ Consumer delinquencies on auto and card debt are at their highest level since 2011.
- ▸ Regional Fed manufacturing surveys have contracted for five consecutive months.
- ▸ GDP tracking estimates for Q2 2026 sit at +1.8%, inconsistent with a dated peak.
- ▸ Payroll growth remains positive; no dated recession has begun with payrolls expanding this fast.
- ▸ Fiscal impulse from enacted infrastructure outlays peaks in 2026-2027.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announces a U.S. business-cycle peak dated to any month in calendar 2026. Because NBER dating lags, resolution may occur up to 18 months after the peak month.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
Discussion · 421 comments
LiveCommittee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 32%. Holding YES at 19 entry.
YES at 24% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
YES at 24% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Fading the crowd here. "GDP tracking estimates for Q2 2026 sit at +1.8%, inconsistent with a dated peak." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 14%.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 32%. Holding YES at 19 entry.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (10.4K forecasters).
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.