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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Election Hub 2026

Races, candidates, polling averages, and forecast probabilities for the 2026 federal cycle.

Demonstration data — not a live government record
General Election · November 3, 2026
123days remaining
House balance of power — forecast
D 209 safe/lean17 toss-upsR 209 safe/lean
Ohio U.S. Senate Race 2026Lean R
RThomas Reedpoll 47.8%58%
DDanielle Okaforpoll 45.1%42%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Colorado U.S. Senate Race 2026Likely D
DAlexandra Morganpoll 52.4%78%
RGrant Hallowaypoll 41.2%22%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Florida U.S. Senate Race 2026Lean R
RMarcus Ibarrapoll 49.6%64%
DRenee Callowaypoll 44.8%36%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Race 2026Toss-up
DSarah Lindqvistpoll 46.9%51%
RVictor Marshpoll 46.2%49%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Arizona U.S. Senate Race 2026Toss-up
RCody Brandtpoll 46.5%53%
DElena Vasquezpoll 45.8%47%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
North Carolina U.S. Senate Race 2026Toss-up
RWade Suttonpoll 47.1%56%
DPriya Ramanpoll 45.6%44%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Wisconsin U.S. Senate Race 2026Lean D
DRebecca Stroudpoll 48.7%62%
RKurt Feldmanpoll 44.1%38%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
California 45th District House Race 2026Toss-up
DJames Whitmanpoll 47.2%54%
RKaren Diehlpoll 45.6%46%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Florida 6th District House Race 2026Likely R
RMaria Carterpoll 53.1%81%
DOwen Petrakispoll 40.2%19%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Iowa 3rd District House Race 2026Toss-up
RBen Kowalskipoll 45.9%51%
DMichelle Tranpoll 45.5%49%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Georgia Governor Race 2026Toss-up
RRoy Buckleypoll 46.8%52%
DNaomi Ashfordpoll 46.1%48%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3
Michigan Governor Race 2026Lean D
DClaire Novakpoll 48.9%63%
RDouglas Piercepoll 44.3%37%
Polling avg vs forecast probabilityNov 3

Election Calendar

Ohio — Senate
Register by 2026-10-05
Early voting from 2026-10-06
Colorado — Senate
Register by 2026-10-26
Early voting from 2026-10-19
Florida — Senate
Register by 2026-10-05
Early voting from 2026-10-24
Pennsylvania — Senate
Register by 2026-10-19
Early voting from 2026-09-21
Arizona — Senate
Register by 2026-10-05
Early voting from 2026-10-07
North Carolina — Senate
Register by 2026-10-09
Early voting from 2026-10-15
Prediction-market probabilities reflect participant expectations and can be incorrect. They are not official likelihoods of victory or guaranteed results.