Leaderboard
The most accurate civic forecasters, ranked by verified results — not by follower counts or credits spent.
Overall — Season 2026
Reputation = accuracy + calibration
Rankings are earned only from resolved forecasts. Two things matter:
- Accuracy — how often your side of a market was right.
- Calibration — when you say 70%, it happens about 70% of the time.
Volume never helps: spending more credits, posting more, or entering more markets cannot raise your rank. One perfectly calibrated forecaster with 40 resolved calls outranks a thousand noisy ones.
How categories work
Category boards rank only markets in that policy area. Rising covers first-season forecasters; District Experts ranks accuracy on races inside a forecaster's own district; Evidence scores sourced analysis that held up after resolution.
Season resets quarterly. Credits shown are virtual Q Credits with no cash value.
Badge legend
Badges are awarded automatically from resolved results — they cannot be purchased.Election Specialist
Top-decile accuracy across 50+ resolved election markets, including primaries.
Consistently Calibrated
Stated probabilities match observed outcomes within 5 points over a full season.
Early Signal
Repeatedly takes correct positions 30+ days before the crowd converges.
Evidence Builder
Posts sourced evidence that survives community review on 25+ market threads.
Legislative Tracker
Elite accuracy on bill-passage and committee-action markets.
District Voice
The most accurate forecaster on races and issues inside their own district.
Rising Star
Top newcomer: 25+ resolved forecasts with 78%+ accuracy in a first season.
Top Forecaster
Season #1 overall on the combined accuracy-and-calibration index.