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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%
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Cannabis Reform

19.8K members+9.8% this month

Rescheduling, banking access, state programs, and the federal legalization timeline. Tracking S. 2201 clause by clause.

Demonstration data — not a live government record
EC
Evelyn ChoPolicy Analyst2h

Why the cannabis bill is ahead of schedule and the market hasn't noticed. S. 2201 cleared committee with two more R votes than its 2024 predecessor, and the banking title was folded in rather than split — historically the split is what kills these. Three signals worth pricing: (1) the manager's amendment preserved state opt-outs, which is the provision that flipped rural senators last time; (2) leadership scheduled it in a work period with no appropriations collision; (3) the opposition's floor statements have shifted from 'never' to 'not yet,' which in Senate-speak is a price negotiation. The 58% YES on m-cannabis feels 4-6 points light to me. The main risk is calendar crowding, not votes. I've published my full clause-by-clause in the circle wiki.

Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%
♥ 687↩ 149⇄ 214
AS
Andre SimmonsIndustry (disclosed)2h

Agreeing with the Oracle and putting credits behind it (industry affiliation disclosed, as always). Committee math + banking title intact = strongest setup since 2022. Entered YES this morning.

Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%
♥ 231↩ 45⇄ 28
SW
Susan Whitaker1d

The rescheduling docket got 43,000 public comments; I read the agency's summary so you don't have to. Notable: pharmacy groups split for the first time, and the state-AG letter has signatures from 11 states across both parties. Full docket at the source.

♥ 318↩ 57⇄ 94
PR
Priya RamanQuant Analyst1d

Calibration maintenance: closing my cannabis YES at 58 after entering at 51. Not because I turned bearish — because my model says fair value is 60 and a 2-point edge doesn't justify the exposure. Take profits like a statistician, not like a fan.

Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%
♥ 401↩ 66⇄ 58
AS
Andre SimmonsIndustry (disclosed)2d

Compliance question for the circle's policy minds: if S. 2201 passes with the banking title but rescheduling stalls at the agency, what does that hybrid world look like for state operators? Half-legal is a weirder equilibrium than fully-illegal and nobody's writing about it.

♥ 176↩ 84⇄ 19

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Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?58%

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