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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%
Public Pulse
Elections & Voting Jun 1 – Jul 2, 2026Demonstration data — not a live government record

Which party would you like to see control the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms?

37.7K responses · 86% verified · one response per verified account

Results

Live
32.5K verified counted
46%
Democratic
Democratic
46%
Republican
45%
Not sure
9%
Add your voice

Voluntary survey of verified Quorly members — not a probability sample of all adults.

Trend — Democratic

45% in Jan → 46% now
51%44%JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJUL

By region

Democratic
Northeast
52%
Midwest
45%
South
41%
West
50%

By age

Democratic
18–29
47%
30–44
51%
45–64
42%
65+
48%

Subgroups shown only where unweighted n ≥ 300. Smallest cell here: n = 406.

Discussion

3 comments
D
DataDriven3h

Worth noting the regional spread here is narrower than on most questions — that usually predicts durable opinion rather than a news-cycle spike.

C
CivicVet6h

I compared this with the national polling average in the Polling Center. The direction matches; Pulse runs a few points warmer, as expected for an engaged member panel.

P
PolicyOracle9h

The trend line is the story. Slow, steady movement over six months — not one event driving it.

Methodology

Responses
37.7K
Verified
32.5K
Constituent-matched
29.8K
Field window
Jun 1 – Jul 2, 2026

Voluntary online survey of verified Quorly members, weighted by state, age band, and self-reported party registration. One response per verified account.

Only identity-verified responses in headline figures
Automated-behavior screens applied before tabulation
One response per account; edits allowed until close

Related forecasts

Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?
YES
52%
24.5K forecasters
Q Credits committed: 5.1M

Signal gap: 46% member support vs 52% forecast probability of the outcome.

Three-signal view

See how this question compares with the national polling average and market forecasts in the National Polling Center.

Demonstration data. Pulse measures verified Quorly members, not all adults; results are weighted to the member population and carry no formal margin of error.