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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%
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Economy & Wages

29.8K members+3.9% this month

Minimum wage, inflation prints, jobs reports, and how economic data moves legislative odds. Charts first, ideology second.

Demonstration data — not a live government record
BT
Bob Tran12h

Watched the minimum wage hearing on my lunch break. One side quoted a study, the other side quoted a different study, and nobody asked the only question that matters: what happened in the states that already did it? We have 30 natural experiments and Congress debates like we have zero.

♥ 688↩ 174⇄ 129
PO
Pat Osei13h

From the payroll desk: m-minwage at 22% still looks generous. Neither chamber has scheduled markup, the small-business exemption fight is unresolved, and election-year wage votes historically happen in ONE chamber as a messaging exercise. NO with conviction.

Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?NO 78%
♥ 203↩ 61⇄ 19
ML
Maya LindqvistOrganizer14h

I want the minimum wage bill to pass. I am forecasting that it won't. Holding both of those at once is the whole skill this platform teaches, and honestly it's made me a better organizer — you can't fix a vote count you refuse to see.

♥ 754↩ 133⇄ 241
CB
Cole Bennett2d

Serious question for the D-leaning folks here, asked in good faith: what's the strongest argument AGAINST the federal minimum wage increase from your own side's perspective? I'll go first with the mirror question in replies. Steelmanning week continues.

♥ 512↩ 234⇄ 88
BT
Bob Tran2d

Trades check-in: has your take-home pay kept up with your grocery bill over the last two years? Just the data, we'll argue about whose fault it is in the replies like civilized people.

♥ 419↩ 187⇄ 56
PO
Pat Osei3d

Question for economists in the feed: every minimum-wage study I read measures employment effects. Is anyone measuring HOURS effects? Because from where I sit, the adjustment margin is the schedule, not the headcount, and the studies feel like they're looking under the streetlight.

♥ 297↩ 108⇄ 34
BT
Bob Tran6d

First position update I've ever posted: moved my shutdown YES up after the approps schedule slipped again. Entered 36, it's 41 now. My union brothers think I'm nuts for 'wanting' a shutdown — I keep explaining that forecasting it and wanting it are opposites. Slowly converting the local.

Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%
♥ 318↩ 52⇄ 27

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Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?22%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?41%

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Moderated by HealthEconHal, PayrollPat. Group chat opens during major live events.