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Hot take: the most radicalizing experience available to an American adult is reading the actual text of a bill after a week of hearing about it on TV. Pick any bill. The gap between the document and the discourse is the whole civic crisis in miniature.

Our hospital board voted last night to close the maternity ward. Nearest delivery room is now 74 miles away. When you see 'rural health access' in a bill summary, this is what the phrase means. It means a parking lot birth in February.

Best question on the feed today (p-07). Short answer: the market isn't pricing whether voters want it — it's pricing whether the people who'd have to vote on it want to vote on it. 83% public support and 34% passage odds aren't a contradiction. They're a measurement of the gap. That gap IS the product.

Your forecaster accuracy is lying to you. Calibration is the real score. Accuracy says how often you were right. Calibration says whether your 70%s hit 70% of the time. A forecaster who's right 80% of the time but only takes gimme markets is worse than one at 74% who prices genuine coin flips honestly. This platform scores both — check your profile — and the leaderboard weighs calibration for exactly this reason. Three habits that improved mine: (1) log your reasoning BEFORE checking the market price; (2) review every resolved miss within 48 hours; (3) never average your gut with the crowd after you've seen the crowd — that's not updating, it's anchoring. Full calibration-curve walkthrough in the thread.

City folks in this app keep being surprised that rural voters support the stock-trading ban at the same 80%+ clip as everyone else. Out here we call that 'not being allowed to trade cattle futures on the inspection report you wrote.' It's not complicated.

Tonight's planning commission denied a 40-unit building because of 'neighborhood character,' then spent 20 minutes complaining rents are too high. I'm not saying the two agenda items were related. I'm saying they were the same agenda item.