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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%
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SCOTUS Watch

17.4K members+5.5% this month

Confirmation math, oral-argument tea leaves, and opinion-day forecasting. Reading the Court like a market, not a fan club.

Demonstration data — not a live government record
FD
Francesca DiMarcoCourt Watcher11h

Post-argument read on the confirmation timeline: 71% YES on m-scotus is roughly right but the path is narrower than the number implies. Two committee members' floor statements this week used 'thorough process' language — that's schedule-slip vocabulary. I'm YES but hedged small.

Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%
♥ 276↩ 52⇄ 30
MH
Marcus HaleTop Forecaster1d

Doubling my SCOTUS confirmation YES. Committee vote scheduled for the 14th, and every scheduled committee vote on a nominee in the last decade with this whip picture has proceeded on time. Entry was 66, adding at 71 — yes, adding above entry, because the evidence improved more than the price did.

Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%
♥ 356↩ 71⇄ 42
FD
Francesca DiMarcoCourt Watcher2d

Full transcript of yesterday's confirmation hearing, annotated. Highlight: the exchange at page 47 where the nominee declined to preview a position on agency deference — that non-answer moved my timeline estimate more than any answer could have.

♥ 245↩ 38⇄ 71
CR
Calvin Root4d

Cert-watch spillover: the Court just relisted the agency-deference case for a third conference. Third relists historically mean either a grant with a dissent-from-denial brewing, or a summary reversal. Either outcome tightens the confirmation calendar. Small NO hedge on m-scotus timing.

Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?NO 29%
♥ 189↩ 44⇄ 17

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Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?71%

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