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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Propose a Market

Great markets ask one objective question with a public, verifiable answer. The community and moderators review every proposal before it opens.

All markets

1 · The question

One outcome, one deadline, one verifiable source. Must end with a question mark.

2 · Scope & timing

The date by which the outcome must be determinable from the sources.

3 · Sources & criteria

Public, durable, and specific — the record that controls resolution.

Used only if the primary source is unavailable or ambiguous.

0/40 characters minimum. Ambiguity is the #1 reason proposals are rejected.

4 · Integrity

Markets settle in Q Credits only — a virtual reputation currency with no cash value. Proposing or forecasting is never a wager.
Demonstration data — not a live government record

Good vs. vague

OBJECTIVE

“Will H.R. 1234 receive a House floor vote before December 20, 2026?”

VAGUE

“Will Congress finally do something good about stock trading?”

OBJECTIVE

“Will the BLS report unemployment below 4.5% for any month in 2026?”

VAGUE

“Will the economy be better soon?”

A question is objective when two people who disagree about politics would still agree on how it resolved.

8-step review workflow

  1. 1.Submit

    Your draft enters the queue with a timestamp.

  2. 2.Automated screening

    Checks for duplicates, vague wording, and missing sources.

  3. 3.Community feedback

    48-hour open comment window on wording and criteria.

  4. 4.Clarity review

    Moderators confirm one — and only one — reading of the question.

  5. 5.Source verification

    Primary and backup sources are confirmed public and durable.

  6. 6.Neutrality check

    Wording audited so neither side is framed as the 'right' answer.

  7. 7.Approval & seeding

    The market is approved and seeded with an opening probability.

  8. 8.Market opens

    Forecasting begins; you're credited as the proposer.

Median time from submit to open: 4 days

What gets rejected

  • Questions about private individuals or personal conduct
  • Outcomes the proposer could influence
  • No public source, or a paywalled/deletable source
  • Wording that frames one side as correct
  • Duplicates of an existing open market