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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Dana Whitfield

@CoastalCentrist · CA

Recovering campaign staffer (both parties, don't ask). Now I just want the trains to run and the budget to pass. Radical moderate.

7K followers460 following
Forecast accuracy
77%
Resolved predictions
89
Current streak
3
Q Credits
13,110
position-update17h

Closing half my shutdown position at a small gain. Entered when the market underpriced appropriations dysfunction; now at 41% it's roughly fair value and the remaining risk is headline-driven either way. Discipline means taking fair value when offered.

Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES · 700 credits @ 41%
♥ 189↩ 34⇄ 15
post2d

Hot take: the most radicalizing experience available to an American adult is reading the actual text of a bill after a week of hearing about it on TV. Pick any bill. The gap between the document and the discourse is the whole civic crisis in miniature.

♥ 1340↩ 201⇄ 486
question5d

Design question for the platform (tagging the mods): should Community Notes on forecasting posts affect the author's calibration score, or stay reputational only? I can argue both sides and I'm genuinely torn. Best answer gets a repost.

♥ 342↩ 127⇄ 38

Calibration

83%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Congress
80%
Elections
75%
Demonstration data — not a live government record