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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Priya Raman

Quant Analyst
@DataDriven · WA

Former survey statistician. I read crosstabs so you don't have to. Calibration over confidence, always. Views mine; models open-source.

15.2K followers412 following
Forecast accuracy
84%
Resolved predictions
187
Current streak
8
Q Credits
21,874
poll41m

Methods question for the feed: when a pollster switches from live-caller to online panel mid-cycle, what should aggregators do with the trendline?

♥ 156↩ 64⇄ 12
position-update1d

Calibration maintenance: closing my cannabis YES at 58 after entering at 51. Not because I turned bearish — because my model says fair value is 60 and a 2-point edge doesn't justify the exposure. Take profits like a statistician, not like a fan.

Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES · 1,100 credits @ 51%
♥ 401↩ 66⇄ 58
analysis3d

Your forecaster accuracy is lying to you. Calibration is the real score. Accuracy says how often you were right. Calibration says whether your 70%s hit 70% of the time. A forecaster who's right 80% of the time but only takes gimme markets is worse than one at 74% who prices genuine coin flips honestly. This platform scores both — check your profile — and the leaderboard weighs calibration for exactly this reason. Three habits that improved mine: (1) log your reasoning BEFORE checking the market price; (2) review every resolved miss within 48 hours; (3) never average your gut with the crowd after you've seen the crowd — that's not updating, it's anchoring. Full calibration-curve walkthrough in the thread.

♥ 924↩ 156⇄ 347
post6d

Weekly reminder as new members join: your Q Credits have no cash value, can't be bought, and can't be withdrawn — and that's precisely why the forecasts here are honest. Nobody's hedging rent money. We're scoring judgment, not wealth. Welcome aboard; go be calibrated.

♥ 876↩ 94⇄ 312

Calibration

95%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Elections
90%
Polling
93%
Economy
77%
Demonstration data — not a live government record