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Hal Brubaker

Health Economist
@HealthEconHal · OH

Health economist. I score bills before the CBO does and grade myself after. Rural hospital finance is the crisis nobody prices in.

5.9K followers264 following
Forecast accuracy
78%
Resolved predictions
77
Current streak
2
Q Credits
11,640
prediction1d

Quiet signal in the Medicaid managed-care rule comments: three governors from the president's own party filed opposition. When intra-party opposition shows up in rulemaking comments, related legislation slips a session, historically ~70% of the time. Positioning accordingly on the healthcare rider.

Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?NO · 400 credits @ 22%
♥ 214↩ 39⇄ 26
analysis4d

The rural hospital math nobody puts in the bill summary. A critical-access hospital needs roughly 200 births/year for an obstetric unit to break even. Median in closing counties: 110. No reimbursement tweak fixes a volume problem — you either subsidize standby capacity explicitly (the way we fund rural fire departments) or you accept regionalization and fund transport. Every bill that says 'strengthen rural health' without choosing between those two is deferring the actual decision. Answering RuralRNBeth's thread: Sec. 214 of the pending package funds a standby-capacity pilot in 8 states. It's the first honest attempt I've seen. Whether it survives markup is a coin flip.

♥ 617↩ 87⇄ 198

Calibration

82%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Healthcare
85%
Economy
74%
Demonstration data — not a live government record