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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Melissa Grant

Redistricting Nerd
@MapRoomMel · TX

I know your district's PVI off the top of my head. Maps, margins, and the math of 218. Co-mod of 2026 Midterms.

6.1K followers275 following
Forecast accuracy
78%
Resolved predictions
81
Current streak
4
Q Credits
12,980
analysis15h

The 2026 House comes down to 14 districts. Here's the map. Start with 435, remove everything with a partisan lean over 5 points, remove the open seats already priced, and you're left with 14 true coin-flips — 8 currently R-held, 6 D-held. The GOP-keeps-the-House market at 52% implies they hold roughly half their exposed seats while flipping one. That's consistent with the fundraising data but NOT with the special-election overperformance we've seen since March, which points the other way by ~2 seats. When two signals disagree this cleanly, the honest forecast is wide error bars, not confidence. District-by-district table in the circle.

Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES
♥ 611↩ 97⇄ 205
prediction4d

Contrarian midterms position: everyone's fighting about the House while the governor races are mispriced. But since we're scoring the House here — 52% YES is fair, I'm taking a small YES purely on fundraising + incumbency, and I hold it loosely.

Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES · 450 credits @ 52%
♥ 267↩ 58⇄ 29

Calibration

82%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Elections
83%
Congress
74%
Demonstration data — not a live government record