Quorly
Join free
Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Owen Marsh

@OpenWeightsOwen · TX

Startup founder, open-source maximalist. I think most AI bills regulate the wrong layer — and I put credits behind that opinion.

4.7K followers267 following
Forecast accuracy
69%
Resolved predictions
44
Current streak
0
Q Credits
7,650
prediction5h

The AI framework bill keeps getting scored as 'inevitable' by people who don't read markup transcripts. The compute-threshold section has no agreed number, and until it does there is no bill — there's a press release. NO at 47% is free calibration points.

Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?NO · 600 credits @ 47%
♥ 198↩ 89⇄ 21
post1d

Unpopular in my circle but: the state-patchwork argument for federal AI law is the strongest one, and I say that as someone forecasting NO on the bill. 34 different state compliance regimes would be worse for open-source than one federal floor. My objection is this bill's floor, not the concept.

♥ 387↩ 121⇄ 67
position-update4d

Marking my AI-act NO to market honestly: the markup adopting a compute threshold hurt my thesis, full stop. I entered at 47, note got slapped on my last post (fair), and I'm cutting the position in half rather than pretending the evidence didn't change. This is the way.

Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?NO · 300 credits @ 47%
♥ 512↩ 78⇄ 96

Calibration

72%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

AI Regulation
74%
Demonstration data — not a live government record