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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Maya Lindqvist

Organizer
@ProgressPrairie · MN

Minnesota organizer for rural broadband and clean water. Progressive and proud of it — but my forecasts are ruthlessly sober. Those are different muscles.

6.2K followers730 following
Forecast accuracy
74%
Resolved predictions
66
Current streak
4
Q Credits
10,320
post14h

I want the minimum wage bill to pass. I am forecasting that it won't. Holding both of those at once is the whole skill this platform teaches, and honestly it's made me a better organizer — you can't fix a vote count you refuse to see.

♥ 754↩ 133⇄ 241
prediction2d

Answered Ranger's steelman thread, now the position: I think the House flips and I'm putting 800 on NO for GOP-keeps-House. Special-election overperformance since March is the single most predictive off-year signal we have, and it currently points against the 52%.

Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?NO · 800 credits @ 53%
♥ 329↩ 97⇄ 45
evidence4d

County-level broadband map update: 61% of my district now has fiber access, up from 34% in 2023. The buildout money is WORKING and nobody's campaign is mentioning it because it passed with both parties' votes and therefore benefits no one's narrative. Receipts at the source.

♥ 428↩ 67⇄ 139

Calibration

79%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Climate
79%
Elections
71%
Demonstration data — not a live government record